Our greatest President since 1965?
Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 (SS2OS-2020–03)
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola [E1]
With two years to go before the next presidential elections, we conducted the third Statistically Speaking v.2.0 Online Survey (SS2OS-2020–03). Subject to the limitations [E2] of our online survey, we now release the summary responses to the first survey question. Many of you might be disappointed/shocked/disturbed/angry or feel violated, but many others might not understand why you should feel so!
Background information:
- The survey respondents [E3] come from those reached online by Statistically Speaking v.2.0 (SSv.2.0).
- The SS2OS-2020–03 drew a total of 852 responses over 15 days from 22 May-5 June 2020.
- There were 3 main questions:
Question 1— Since 1965, who do you think has been our greatest President? ( choose the top 3: 1 = best; 2 = 2nd best; 3 = 3rd best).
For Question 1, we assessed
- the responses to the Top 1 as the greatest President, and
- the combined scores for the Top 3 choices — we gave (somewhat arbitrarily) 10 points for each Top 1 choice, 5 points for each Top 2 choice and 2 points for each Top 3 choice.
In addition, considering that the distribution of respondents by residence is heavily biased towards the NCR we made separate computations using weighted relative scores, with the registered voters’ share by residence in the May 2019 elections as weights.
Question 2— In the 2022 presidential elections, what do you think will be the main deciding factor for most Filipino voters when they cast their vote? (Check only one); and
Question 3— Who do you think will be the best President for the Philippines in 2022? The listing has been randomized. (please choose three and indicate rank: 1 = best, 2 = 2nd best, 3 = 3rd best)
- There has been some shift in the profile of the SS2OS respondents for all the demographic variables except for educational attainment. Worth noting is the increased participation of residents from Visayas and Mindanao, although not yet commensurate with their share of the general population.
Respondents’ Profile
- More than 6 out of 10 respondents (63%) are female; 3.4 % come from the LGBTQ+ community.
- Almost 4 out of 5 respondents are below 40 years old (born after 1980); close to 5 out of 10 respondents are at least 40 but below 60 years old (born between 1960 and 1980); 14.6 % are at least 60 but below 80 years old (born between 1940 and 1960); and 2 respondents are at least 80 years old (born before 1940).
- It should be noted that based on the PSA population projections, 71.55% of the 2020 Philippine population were born after 1980 who probably knew very little about the martial law under Pres. Marcos. In the sample for this survey, 37.9% belong to this group and another 47.3% belong to the group born between 1960 and 1980 who were at most 26 years old during the EDSA Revolution.
- More than nine out of 10 have at least a 4-year college degree with 37.2% having at least masteral degrees.
- The SS2OS-2020–03 respondents have income much much higher than the per capita poverty threshold of PhP 2,246.40 per month for 2020. Almost 6 out of 10 respondents (57.4%) come from the PhP 20k-100k monthly income group and 23.6% have monthly income of over PhP 100k. Unfortunately, Statistically Speaking v.2.0 still does not have the resources to ensure adequate representation of the low-income groups in the sample.
- The sample shares of Visayas and Mindanao have significantly improved to 12.6% and 17.7%, respectively, although together with the Rest of Luzon, they are still underrepresented compared to their shares of both registered voters and the population-wise. For the third survey, we requested our FB friends to promote the SS2OS to areas outside Luzon.
Excluding votes of respondents from outside the Philippines the sample distribution and the registered voters’ share by residence are as follows:
- Less than 6% of the respondents are not Christian; 77 % are Roman Catholic.
And now, Survey says [E3]:
Based on the unweighted responses and only the votes for the Top 1 position:
Overall and practically across all disaggregations, among the 7 past presidents since 1965, Estrada was voted last, Arroyo 2nd last, and C. Aquino, 3rd last. B. Aquino was 3rd greatest and Ramos, 4th greatest.
However, B. Aquino was considered the greatest by the LGBTQ+ community with its less than 30 respondents. He was also voted a very close 2nd greatest by respondents who have post graduate degrees (masteral/doctoral) and a close 2nd by those with monthly income of over PhP100,000.
Duterte was voted the greatest president by the following groups:
— Respondents below 40 years old;
— Those who have post graduate degrees (masteral/doctoral);
— Those with Monthly incomes of not more than PhP 50,000; more so by those with income of nor more than PhP 20,000;
— Respondents from Visayas and particularly Mindanao, 71% of whom considered Duterte as the greatest President since 1965;
On the other hand, Marcos was voted as the greatest President since 1965 by:
— Male and Female respondents, as separate groups;
— Respondents who are at least 40 years old (born before 1980); and separately, by those who are at least 60 years old (born before 1960);
— Those who have at most a college degree;
— Those with monthly income over PhP 50,000, including separately those with monthly income of over PhP 100,000;
— Residents of NCR, Rest of Luzon, and outside the Philippines; and
— Those who belong to the Roman Catholic church as well as to other Christian churches who comprise a combined total of more than 94% of the respondents.
Aggregations can be found through this link: https://tinyurl.com/y95lbh9o
Based on the unweighted and weighted votes only for the Top 1 greatest president since 1965, you ranked the 7 past presidents as follows:
On the other hand, based on the unweighted and weighted responses and considering votes for the Top 1, Top 2, and Top 3 positions, giving 10 points for each Top1 vote, 5 points for each Top 2 vote, and 2 points for each Top 3 vote, you ranked the 7 past presidents as follows:
Some observations:
- The popularity of Pres. Duterte captured by nationally-representative surveys of Pulse Asia and SWS is convincingly replicated in this online survey; if Marcos had his solid North in the past, Duterte now has his solid Mindanao;
- The many votes for Marcos as the greatest President since 1965 may have not been totally unexpected considering that 71.55% of the Philippine 2020 population as projected by the PSA and 4 out of 5 SS2OS-2020–03 respondents were born after 1980 who were not even in their teens during the 1986 EDSA People Power Revolution.
However, what is surprising is that respondents who were born before 1960 (at least 26 years old in 1986 and thus old enough to possibly understand why the EDSA revolution happened in the first place) and respondents from the NCR where the EDSA revolution ignited gave Marcos the most number of Top 1 votes!
- Weighting does not affect the rankings of the percentage scores in the charts above except for the first and second ranks when only the Top 1 scores are counted: in the unweighted scores, Marcos is first (by a small margin), Duterte is second; when the scores are weighted, the ranks got reversed. Thus, adjusting for the underrepresentation in the sample of the Rest of Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao, the overwhelming choice of Mindanao respondents reversed the choice for the greatest President since 1965, from Marcos to Duterte (by a bigger margin).
From the results, one may raise the following questions…
What defines our “greatest” President?
Do Filipinos have a thorough understanding and appreciation of the events that led to the 1986 People Power Revolution which captured the hearts and minds of citizens from all over the world? Or did our leaders who came into power after EDSA completely fail our expectations? Or are we simply a people who easily forget and/or forgive?
On the other hand, have historians from the Philippine National Historical Society/Philippine Historical Association published an objective and definitive documentation of relevant events that happened before, during, and after the EDSA Revolution which perhaps should be taught in our schools? Any thought on this, DepEd Sec. Briones?
May future celebrations of our Independence Day be more meaningful! Especially in Pag-asa and the West Philippine Sea!
For the results on the second survey question, please see our next post.
Endnotes:
[E1]: Romulo A. Virola is formerly with the Actuarial Research and Development Group of the GSIS, and a former Professorial Lecturer in the Graduate Programs of the Statistical Center/School of Statistics and the Department of Mathematics (now the Institute of Mathematics) of the University of the Philippines . He retired in 2012 as Secretary General of the then National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) of the Philippines or NSCB (now part of the Philippine Statistics Authority). He finished his BS (Mathematics) from UP, and MS (Actuarial Mathematics) and PhD (Statistics) from the University of Michigan, where he was a Fellow in its Sampling Program for Foreign Statisticians under the late Prof. Leslie Kish, author of the pioneering “Survey Sampling”, considered by many as the bible in the field. He used to write/co-write the Statistically Speaking articles posted on the NSCB website from 2004 until his retirement. The author thanks his former colleagues in the National Statistical System (NSS) of the Philippines particularly from the NSCB, Jay Mendoza of IOM, UN Migration Agency and some FB adviser-friends for the assistance and support in preparing this paper.
[E2]: The survey does not use a randomly drawn sample of respondents. Thus, the results should not be interpreted as coming from a nationally-representative sample, much less a representative sample from any of the “subdomains”. Comparisons across subgroups are valid only for the sample.
As a private sector initiative, it did not pass thru the PSA Statistical Survey Review and Clearance System (SSRCS), one of many mechanisms started by the NSCB for statistical coordination. Under the SSRCS, surveys conducted by or for the government pass review to ensure adherence to internationally recognized statistical standards and methodologies and to avoid duplication of efforts by the different agencies comprising the national statistical system.
We also do not ask for the name, address/email address, or tel. number of the respondent which could be useful in validating responses.
[E3]: Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 thanks all the respondents who participated in the survey and all the Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 FB friends and followers who encouraged their own FB friends to participate. Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 is also grateful to Google for the use of its online survey facility.
