In 2022, will the Filipino Voter Transform?
Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 (SS2OS-2020–03)
by Dr. Romulo A. Virola [E1]
According to opposition lawmaker Gabriela Rep. Arlene Brosas, “the general elections in 2022 will remain the playground of billionaires, thanks to a bill raising five-fold the amount that may be spent in a campaign by presidential candidates.” [E2]. In opposing the passage of House Bill №6095, Cong. Brosas said “the electoral system would continue to favor only the moneyed elite, while ordinary Filipinos would have no fighting chance to take elective posts in the future”.
Wanting to gain insights on how far democracy has matured in our country, Question 2 of our third Statistically Speaking v.2.0 Online Survey (SS2OS-2020–03) asked
“In the 2022 presidential elections, what do you think will be the main deciding factor for most Filipino voters when they cast their vote?”
Background information:
- The survey respondents come from those reached online by Statistically Speaking v.2.0 (SSv.2.0).
- The SS2OS-2020–03 drew a total of 852 responses over 15 days from 22 May-5 June 2020
- Unfortunately, for not a few respondents, the question may have not been very clear. Their responses seemed to answer “how should Filipino voters vote?” rather than “how will MOST Filipino voters vote?” [E3]
- For the Respondents’ Profile, please refer to our June 14, 2020 post on the first survey question.
- You can access more detailed information thru the interactive dashboard.
Subject to the limitations [E4] of our online survey, and based on your unweighted responses, you [E5] think the main deciding factor in the 2022 presidential elections is as follows:
Performance/Qualifications/Leadership qualities, according to 43.8% of the respondents. IMPRESSIVE!
- “Strong decisive leader, people-centered, strong charisma”
- “A president who has strong leadership qualities that include honesty, integrity, and fiscally conservative”
- “With Political will”
Personality/Physical characteristics, says 11.3%. Surprised?
- “Patriotism”
- “Religious belief”
- “a leader with a heart like Pres. Duterte”
- “Most Filipinos do not vote for platform or performance. They vote based on emotion, who is popular, who is underdog”
- “a leader like former Sen. Miriam Defensor”
Platform of governance, 18.2%. NOT HIGH ENOUGH?
- “One to uphold the sovereignty of the land; protecy, conserve and harness resources and instill “positive” cultural values”
- “A president who has the knowledge and will to prepare for future pandemics and climate change. 2020 is defining year not only for Filipinos but the entire world”
- “One who can exercise fair implementation of law and justice”
- “Integrity love for the country/people honesty”
Amount of Money paid for the vote, 1.6%. Really? Congresswoman Brosas, you may want to recompute?
Others, a whopping 25.1%, that include [E3]
- “it will be dependent on how much the people will remember and who the voting majority will be”
- “I hope Filipino voters will be more discerning on who they will vote for”
- “I hope they rely not on emotions, but on objectivity. Political leaders who takes to heart the needs and rights of the people”
- “How well informed are the voters, how they appreciate the genuine credentials of the candidates, and how far they are swayed by herd mentality and/or influenced by fake news/information”
Some observations [E7]:
- The highest percentages who think Performance/Qualifications/Leadership qualities will be the main deciding factor come from
— Respondents from Mindanao (63.6%)
— Those with masteral/doctoral degrees (47.9%)
- The lowest percentages of respondents who think Performance/ Qualifications/ Leadership qualities will be the main deciding factor come from
— Other religion (28.9%)
— Those residing Outside the Philippines (32.1%)
- The lowest percentage of respondents who think Personality/Physical characteristics will be the main deciding factor come from
— Residents of Mindanao (5.3%)
— Residents of Visayas (6.5%)
— Female respondents (8.0%)
- The highest percentage of respondents who think Platform of Governance will be the main deciding factor come from
— those who are not 4-year college degree holders (28.9%)
— those with monthly income up to PhP 20,000 (24.1%)
- The lowest percentage come from
— those residing Outside the Philippines (12.8%)
— those with monthly income over PhP 50,000 up to PhP 100,000 (13.1%)
- Less than 5% in each group thinks the amount of money paid for the vote will be the main deciding factor. The highest percentages come from
— those born between 1940 and 1960 (4.8%)
— respondents from Visayas (3.7%)
— those with monthly income over PhP 100,000 (3.0%)
Are these indications that Filipino voters are perceived to behave as “intelligent” voters in 2022
by respondents
- from Mindanao
- with lower income
- with lower educational attainment
more than by other groups of respondents such as those
- residing outside the Philippines and
- those with religion other than Christian/Islam?
I wonder why?
On other matters, in case you will be subpoenaed by Congress for some reason, and a congressman/woman asks you to recite the first line of the Panatang Makabayan, instead of sheepishly saying “Iniibig ko ang Pilipinas”, may I suggest that you shoot right back and ask that congressman/woman for the latest official census count of the population in his/her congressional district? And for impact, why not erupt with a “massive flatulence” like that man who was fined 500 euros by Austrian police for “loudly breaking wind” after police officers stopped him to check his identity? [E6]
For the results on the third and last survey question, please see our next post.
Endnotes:
[E1]: Romulo A. Virola is formerly with the Actuarial Research and Development Group of the GSIS, and a former Professorial Lecturer in the Graduate Programs of the Statistical Center/School of Statistics and the Department of Mathematics (now the Institute of Mathematics) of the University of the Philippines . He retired in 2012 as Secretary General of the then National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) of the Philippines or NSCB (now part of the Philippine Statistics Authority). He finished his BS (Mathematics) from UP, and MS (Actuarial Mathematics) and PhD (Statistics) from the University of Michigan, where he was a Fellow in its Sampling Program for Foreign Statisticians under the late Prof. Leslie Kish, author of the pioneering “Survey Sampling”, considered by many as the bible in the field. He used to write/co-write the Statistically Speaking articles posted on the NSCB website from 2004 until his retirement. The author thanks his former colleagues in the National Statistical System (NSS) of the Philippines particularly from the NSCB, Jay Mendoza of IOM, UN Migration Agency and some FB adviser-friends for the assistance and support in preparing this paper.
[E2]: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/byline/dj-yap By: DJ Yap — Reporter / @deejayapINQ
Philippine Daily Inquirer / 04:04 AM June 03, 2020
[E3]: The software automatically added among the choices those specified by respondents (quoted verbatim in this article) under Others. We decided to reclassify some of them under the four original choices offered.
[E4]: The survey does not use a randomly drawn probability sample of respondents. Thus, the results should not be interpreted as coming from a nationally-representative sample, much less a representative sample from any of the “subdomains”. Comparisons across subgroups are valid only for the sample.
As a private sector initiative, it did not pass thru the PSA Statistical Survey Review and Clearance System (SSRCS), one of many mechanisms started by the NSCB for statistical coordination. Under the SSRCS, surveys conducted by or for the government pass review to ensure adherence to internationally recognized statistical standards and methodologies and to avoid duplication of efforts by the different agencies comprising the national statistical system.
We also do not ask for the name, address/email address, or tel. number of the respondent which could be useful in validating responses.
[E5]: Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 thanks all the respondents who participated in the survey and all the Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 FB friends and followers who encouraged their own FB friends to participate. Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 is also grateful to Google for the use of its online survey facility, as well as Medium.com and Public.Tableau. com
[E7]: Considering only subgroups with at least 30 respondents
