How Prepared Are We in Times of Major Disasters?
Statistically Speaking v.2.0
By Romulo A. Virola [E1]
I am saddened by the low response to SS2OS-04, our fourth online survey. I hope this is not a reflection of our lack of collective appreciation on the importance of disaster preparedness! Could it be due to response burden?
One day about two weeks ago, I finally decided to go out with my apo(s) to see what was happening beyond the confines of our home….we went to Jollibee and while I was eating my yum burger inside the car, I watched the people outside…and I saw a few of our kababayan, possibly blinded by hubris, nonchalantly strolling without wearing face masks/shields! So beyond the apparent failure of the DOH and the IATF to manage the crisis as well as the Japanese, the Koreans, the Thais, and the Vietnamese, we, the people, seemed to have failed to recognize the urgency of the COVID-19 crisis!
And now I understand better why as of 22 September 2020, the Philippines has the 21st highest number of total COVID-19 cases with 291,789 out of 215 countries/states being monitored by Worldometer. In terms of the number of deaths per million (DPM) population, we have 46 compared to 1,237 for San Marino (1st, with population of 33,947), 952 for Peru (2nd, with population of 33.01 million), 217 for the USA, 64 for India, 36 for Indonesia, 14 for Hongkong, 12 for Japan, 8 for South Korea, 7 for Brunei Darussalam, 5 for Singapore, 4 for Malaysia, 3 for China ( population of 1.44 billion), 2 for Myanmar, 0.8 for Thailand, and 0.4 for Vietnam. Moreover, the Philippines has the highest total number of cases and DPM among the ASEAN Member States![E2]
Back in 2008, Statistically Speaking (version 1) wrote about typhoons [E3]. The findings were that historically from 1948 to 2007,
- Tropical cyclones and typhoons entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility most frequently in July, August, September, and October.
- The most number of typhoons occurred in the third quarter, but the strongest ones came during the last three Ber..rrrrr months of the year.
- Coincidence or not, 9 of the 20 deadliest ( highest number of deaths) cyclones all happened in November!
- Menacingly, the typhoons got stronger and stronger, especially since the 90s. Due to climate change?
With respect to earthquakes, a team of researchers from the French École Normale Supérieure has succeeded in creating an artificial intelligence (AI) algorithm that can identify changes in the earth’s crust that occur up to three months before an earthquake and ultimately detect recurrent phenomena that lead up to a significant seismic event. The machine used in the algorithm looked for signs of “slow” earthquakes under Vancouver Island, Canada. Slow earthquakes are seismic events which share many characteristics with more devastating fast earthquakes, and can last for a period of weeks or even months. They hardly generate any seismic waves and do not usually cause much damage. The research agenda is to use a similar approach using AI to model and predict destructive earthquakes [E4]. Hopefully, the result of this research will help us in the future to prepare better for earthquakes.
And now, Survey [E5] says:
Background Information
- The survey respondents come from those reached online by Statistically Speaking v.2.0 (SSv.2.0).
- The SS2OS-2020–04 drew a total of 119 responses [E6] over 29 days from 18 August to 15 September 2020 .
- Average levels of preparedness are computed, both unweighted and weighted, with the population shares [E7] of the respondents’ residence as weights
- The dashboard can be accessed here.
- The survey question ( with Pilipino translation) is
At this point in time and on a scale of 0 to 10, how would you rate the preparedness of ________ in case of a major disaster ( Rate as 0 if very unprepared, 10 if very prepared)
Sa iyong paningin, gaano kahanda ang ________ sa oras ng isang malaking sakuna? Piliin and 0 kung talagang hindi handa, hanggang 10 kung handang handa, DK kung hindi alam
The question is asked of the following:
A. Your Family ( Ang Iyong Pamilya)
B. Your Barangay (Ang Iyong Barangay)
C. Your Municipal/City Government (Ang Pamahalaan ng Iyong Munisipyo o Syudad)
D. The National Government, Including the Relevant National Government Agencies ( Ang Pamahalaang Nasyonal, Kasama na ang mga Ahensya na Dapat Makatulong)
And with reference to the following major disasters:
a) Fire
b) Earthquake
c) Floods/Typhoons
d) Bombings/Terrorist attacks
Respondents’ Profile
- Close to 7 out of 10 SS2OS-2020–04 respondents (70.3%) are female; No one from the LGBTQ+ community responded.
- Almost 9 out of 10 respondents (86.6%) are below 65 years old. No more than 30% of the sample were millennials [E8]. And we had one respondent who is at least 90 years old! We pray that you will enjoy good health to be able to respond to many more Statistically Speaking surveys to come. God bless you!
- More than nine out of 10 (95.7%) respondents have at least a 4-year college degree with a high 63.2% having at least masteral degrees.
- At least 8 out of 10 respondents (85.7%) have income much higher than the per capita poverty threshold of PhP 2,246.40 per month for 2020.
- More than 7 out of 10 respondents (71.5%) reside in Luzon. NCR is overrepresented in the sample (32.8% but adjusted to 33.3% if we take out those residing outside the Philippines) comprising a share which is more than double its share (12.7%) in the population; AONCR, Visayas and particularly Mindanao are under represented in the sample with shares of 38.7%, 15.% and 11.8%, respectively. Respondents from outside the Philippines comprise 1.7%.
Preparedness in Times of Major Disasters: Findings
- The average level of preparedness across all disasters (fire, earthquake, typhoons/flooding, and bombings/terrorist attacks) and across all statistical units (family, barangay, municipality/city government, and national government) is less than 60% ( rating given is less than 6 out of 10). If this is indicative of the actual situation, surely the NDRRMC and the LGU top officials ought to do something! Could it be that the DBM has not been giving the NDRMMC adequate budget?
- Across all the major disasters, respondents think the family and the barangay are best prepared against typhoons/flooding while the municipality/city government and the national government are best prepared against fire. This is based on the average level of preparedness whether one looks at unweighted or weighted average.
- The level of preparedness against bombings/terrorist attacks is lowest with average levels below 40% and modal rating of 0 (Very Unprepared) across all statistical units (Family, Barangay, Municipality/City government, and National government). At least 5% of the respondents did not know (DK responses) the level of preparedness against bombings/terrorist attacks also across all statistical units. This should alert the NDRRMC as to what intervention programs may be needed, but this makes me wonder if in fact, the NDRRMC and the LGUS have done anything significant at all to motivate our kababayan to prepare better for major disasters?
- Modal rating given by respondents is generally 5, except against bombings/terrorist as mentioned in the preceding bullet, and against fire for which the respondents gave a modal rating of 7 for the Municipality/City government and tied modal ratings of 5 and 8 for the National government.
We had hoped that thru this survey, we would be able to raise public consciousness on the importance of disaster preparedness, particularly of those with young children and elderly in the house, but the number of respondents to the survey is not encouraging at all! We can only hope and pray that the Lord God will protect us at all times against all kinds of major disasters!
Stay safe!
Endnotes:
[E1]: Romulo A. Virola is formerly with the Actuarial Research and Development Group of the GSIS, and a former Professorial Lecturer in the Graduate Programs of the Statistical Center/School of Statistics and the Department of Mathematics (now the Institute of Mathematics) of the University of the Philippines . He retired in 2012 as Secretary General of the then National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) of the Philippines or NSCB (now part of the Philippine Statistics Authority). He finished his BS (Mathematics) from UP, and MS (Actuarial Mathematics), MA (Statistics), and PhD (Statistics) from the University of Michigan, where he was a Fellow in its Sampling Program for Foreign Statisticians under the late Prof. Leslie Kish, author of the pioneering “Survey Sampling”, considered by many as the bible in the field. He used to write/co-write the Statistically Speaking articles posted on the NSCB website from 2004 until his retirement. The author thanks his former colleagues in the National Statistical System (NSS) of the Philippines particularly from the NSCB, Jay Mendoza of IOM, UN Migration Agency and some FB adviser-friends for the assistance and support in sustaining the preparation of posts for the Statistically Speaking v.2.0.
[E2]: https://www.worldometers.info/. No information is provided for Cambodia and Laos
[E3]: “SOME THINGS YOU BETTER KNOW ABOUT TYPHOONS IN THE PHILIPPINES!” posted 11 August 2008 on the then NSCB website. Data sources included the NDCC (now NDRRMC), PAGASA (www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph), NSCB and Typhoon2000.com., a very useful compilation then of Dominic Alojado (with additional information by David Michael V. Padua). The website of Mr. Padua is interestingly informative but warns users not to use his data “to make life or death decisions”.
[E4]: https://technology.inquirer.net/source/afp-relaxnews, August 30, 2020
[E5]: The survey does not use a randomly drawn sample of respondents. Thus, the results should not be interpreted as coming from a nationally-representative sample. Due to the small number of respondents for the SSOS-04, the survey results will be presented without the disaggregation used in the three previous SSv.2.0 surveys.
As a private sector initiative, it did not pass thru the PSA Statistical Survey Review and Clearance System (SSRCS), one of many mechanisms started by the NSCB for statistical coordination. Under the SSRCS, surveys conducted by or for the government pass review to ensure adherence to internationally recognized statistical standards and methodologies and to avoid duplication of efforts by the different agencies comprising the national statistical system.
We also do not ask for the name, address/email address, or tel. number of the respondent which could be useful in validating responses.
This survey is not commissioned by any individual/organization.
[E6]: Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 thanks all the respondents who participated in the survey and all the Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 FB friends and followers who encouraged their own FB friends to participate. Statistically Speaking v. 2.0 is also grateful to Google for the use of its online survey facility.
[E7]: In the Updated Mid-Year Population Projections of the PSA based on the 2015 POPCEN, 12.7% of the total population in 2020 come from NCR, 44.5% from Areas Outside NCR (AONCR) or Rest of Luzon, 18.9% from Visayas, and 23.9% from Mindanao including the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM).
[E8]: Gallup Inc defines the millennials to be those born from 1980 to 1996, i.e. those between 24 and 40 years old in 2020.
